The risk for Euro (EUR) remains on the upside, but it must first close above 1.1755 before a move toward 1.1790 can be expected, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Above 1.1755, EUR can move toward 1.1790

24-HOUR VIEW: "Although we pointed out yesterday that 'the bias for EUR remains tilted to the upside,' we noted that it 'does not appear to have enough momentum to break above 1.1720.' We were correct on the first point, but not the second, as EUR rose to a high of 1.1736 before retreating to close at 1.1709, up 0.21%. The upward bias appears to have faded with the pullback, and today, we expect EUR to consolidate, most likely in a range of 1.1685/1.1735."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Friday (29 Aug, spot at 1.1680), we highlighted that 'short-term upward momentum is starting to build, and the probability of EUR breaking above 1.1720 is increasing, and it would continue to increase in the coming days as long as 1.1620 (‘strong support’ level) is not breached.' Yesterday, Monday, EUR rose above 1.1720, reaching a high of 1.1736. Upward momentum has improved further, albeit not much. The risk for EUR remains on the upside, but it must first close above 1.1755 before a move toward 1.1790 can be expected. Overall, only a breach of 1.1660 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.1620) would indicate that the upside risk has faded."