Amid the ongoing trade war, the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) has been a crucial backstop, RBC Economics' economists report.

U.S. trade policy remains highly unpredictable

"While product specific tariffs on goods including steel and aluminum, copper, and non-U.S. content in auto products remain, most Canadian exports have continued to cross the border duty free under a broad exemption from tariffs for trade compliant with CUSMA rules of origin." "Preserving that exemption is critically important for Canadian producers and exporters – and negotiations to extend CUSMA beyond 2036 are scheduled to kick off next year."

"While U.S. trade policy remains highly unpredictable, there are good reasons to be hopeful that the CUSMA free-trade agreement could and should remain intact."