NZD/USD holds gains near 0.5750 due to prevailing US-China trade tensions

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NZD/USD halts its seven-day losing streak, trading around 0.5740 during the early European hours on Thursday. The pair holds gains as the US Dollar (USD) struggles as traders adopt caution amid the ongoing trade tensions between the United States (US) and China, the world’s two largest economies.

NZD/USD gained as the US Dollar struggles due to market caution, driven by the US-China feud.
CME FedWatch Tool indicates pricing in 96% odds of a Fed rate cut in October.
The New Zealand Dollar may further decline as the RBNZ remains open for further policy easing.

US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he saw the US as in a trade war with China, even as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposed a longer pause on high tariffs on Chinese goods to resolve a conflict over critical minerals.

The US Dollar also faced challenges after US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell stated on Tuesday that the central bank is on track to deliver another quarter-point interest-rate reduction later this month, even as a government shutdown significantly reduces its read on the economy. Powell highlighted the low pace of hiring and noted that it may weaken further. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that markets are now pricing in nearly a 96% chance of a Fed rate cut in October and a 95% possibility of another reduction in December.

The NZD/USD pair may continue its weakening as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could face further challenges due to a dovish tone surrounding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy outlook. RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway said Wednesday that the central bank remains open to further easing but will await incoming data before deciding. Markets now anticipate another rate cut in November, with rates projected to drop to 2.0% by 2026.

New Zealand Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.

How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar?

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.

How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar?

Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.

How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.