NZD/USD Price Forecast: Bulls have the upper hand near monthly peak, around 0.5730

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The NZD/USD pair is building on the previous day's post-Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) move up and gaining strong follow-through positive traction on Thursday.

NZD/USD gains strong follow-through positive traction during the Asian session on Thursday.
The overnight breakout through a confluence barrier backs the case for further appreciation.
A sustained break below the 0.5700 mark is needed to negate the near-term positive outlook.

The NZD/USD pair is building on the previous day's post-Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) move up and gaining strong follow-through positive traction on Thursday. The momentum lifts spot prices to a fresh monthly peak, around the 0.5730 area, during the Asian session, and is further fueled by a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).

The overnight breakout through the 0.5685-0.5690 confluence – comprising the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the September-November fall – favors the NZD/USD bulls. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 76 is flashing overbought conditions and could restrain upside near the 38.2% Fibo. retracement level, around the 0.5745-0.5750 region.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) extends higher in positive territory, hinting at improving momentum. This, in turn, suggests that the NZD/USD pair could extend the recent recovery witnessed over the past week or so, from the 0.5585-0.5580 region, or the lowest level since April, touched last week.

On the flip side, a rejection at the said barrier would keep the intraday rebound contained and shift focus back toward the aforementioned confluence support, just below the 0.5700 round figure. A convincing break below the latter would suggest that the positive momentum has run out of steam and make the NZD/USD pair vulnerable to accelerate the corrective decline toward the 0.5625 region en route to sub-0.5600 levels.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)

NZD/USD 4-hour chart

New Zealand Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.

How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar?

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.

How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar?

Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.

How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.