Silver price forecast: XAG/USD stays above $38.00 on Fed rate cut bets, tariff concerns

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Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its gains for the second successive session, trading around $38.20 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Friday. The non-interest-bearing Silver attracts buyers amid rising odds of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September.

Silver price climbs as expectations grow for a US Federal Reserve rate cut in September.
Soft US labor market data has boosted the odds of a Fed rate cut next month.
The safe-haven demand for Silver increases as traders adopt caution amid renewed tariff concerns.

Markets are pricing in nearly a 93% possibility of a 25 basis point (bps) cut in September, up from 48% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The expectations for Fed rate cut next month, with another possible move in December, are boosted as new applications for unemployment insurance in the United States (US) increased, following the July US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report pointed to a cooling labor market.

US Initial Jobless Claims showed that the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance increased to 226K for the week ending August 2. This figure came in above the market consensus of 221K and was higher than the previous week’s 218K.

Additionally, the price of the safe-haven Silver appreciates as traders adopt caution after US President Donald Trump announced plans to raise tariffs on pharmaceuticals to as much as 250% and, in the latest move, impose a 100% levy on semiconductor imports. Trump’s sweeping retaliatory tariffs took effect on Thursday, with rates ranging from 10% to 41%, fueling concerns about their potential impact on the US economy.

US President Donald Trump has nominated Stephen Miran, chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, to succeed Adriana Kugler on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Traders will also keep their eyes on Trump’s plans to replace Fed Chair Powell. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, seen as more dovish, is emerging as a top candidate to serve as the central bank’s chair among Trump’s advisers, per Bloomberg.

Silver FAQs

Why do people invest in Silver?

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Which factors influence Silver prices?

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

How does industrial demand affect Silver prices?

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves?

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.