WTI edges lower after three-day rally; OPEC report signals ample supply ahead

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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil edges lower on Wednesday, snapping a three-day winning streak, as optimism builds that the record-long United States (US) government shutdown is nearing an end, lifting overall market sentiment and prompting some profit-taking.

WTI Crude Oil retreats after three days of gains as optimism over a potential US government funding deal boosts risk sentiment.
OPEC’s October report highlights steady demand but rising output from both OPEC and non-OPEC producers, reinforcing oversupply concerns.
Traders turn cautious ahead of Thursday’s delayed US EIA inventory report, with expectations pointing to a further crude stock build.

The US House of Representatives is scheduled to vote later on Wednesday on a bill aimed at reopening the government and restoring federal operations. The progress has helped ease near-term fiscal concerns and boosted risk appetite across markets, while also helping the US Dollar (USD) stage a modest rebound after recent weakness. A stronger Greenback typically weighs on Crude prices, as it makes Oil more expensive for foreign buyers.

Oversupply concerns continue to limit the upside. According to the October Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released on Wednesday, the group kept its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d), with total demand projected to average 105.1 mb/d.

The report highlighted that crude production from non-OPEC countries such as the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina is expected to grow by 0.8 mb/d in 2025, followed by an additional 0.6 mb/d increase in 2026. Meanwhile, OPEC’s forecast for demand for its own crude was lowered slightly to 43.0 mb/d in 2026, down 100,000 bpd from the previous projection.

Traders are also turning cautious ahead of the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly inventory report, delayed until Thursday due to the federal holiday schedule. Consensus forecasts point to a 1.0 million-barrel build in crude stockpiles, following the previous week’s 5.2-million-barrel increase.

WTI Oil FAQs

What is WTI Oil?

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.