Indonesian Rupiah declines as May's trade deficit suggests economic concerns

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USD/IDR gains ground after registering minor losses in the previous day, trading around 18,000 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) holds its position despite a disappointing set of domestic labor data released on Thursday.

USD/IDR rises amid rising economic pressure after hitting a surprise $1.61 billion trade deficit in May.
June Nonfarm Payrolls added just 57,000 jobs, missing expectations of 110,000, though unemployment unexpectedly ticked down to 4.2%.
The CME FedWatch tool shows September rate hike odds dropped to 52% from 66% after the release.

US labor market forces Wall Street to aggressively rethink its interest rate outlook. The primary catalyst for this shift was the June Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released on Thursday. The US economy added just 57,000 jobs last month, completely missing the market consensus of 110,000. While the headline unemployment rate managed an unexpected tick downward to 4.2% from May's 4.3%, the severe hiring slowdown heavily signals a cooling broader economy.

Consequently, traders used the data to scale back their hawkish bets; according to the CME FedWatch tool, financial markets are now pricing in a 52% chance of a September interest rate hike, down sharply from the 66% priced in right before the release.

Recent remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the ECB's Sintra conference firmly reaffirmed the central bank’s independent commitment to a 2% price stability target; he also acknowledged that inflation risks and expectations have begun to moderate over the past month.

Indonesia faces rising economic pressure after hitting a surprise $1.61 billion trade deficit in May, its first since 2020, and a three-month inflation high of 3.34% in June. With exports falling and imports surging, Fitch Ratings has warned that declining foreign exchange reserves could soon threaten the nation's credit rating.

Risk sentiment FAQs

What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets?

In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.

What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics?

Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.

Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"?

The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.

Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"?

The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

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