BNY’s Bob Savage expects the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep rates unchanged against a backdrop of technical recession and softer growth. While recent labour data surprised to the upside, the statement tone and recession discussion will be key for the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and rates, with Federal Reserve (Fed) pricing moving more hawkish and trade headwinds likely to keep CAD under pressure.

Policy pause weighs on Canadian Dollar

"The BoC meets on Wednesday against a softer growth backdrop, with the economy now in a technical recession notwithstanding the strong labor report, making the policy decision more noteworthy than usual."

"The BoC is widely expected to remain on hold, but the tone of the statement and any discussion of recession risks will matter for the CAD and Canadian rates."

""Canada’s labor report also beat expectations. For markets, the key question is whether CPI confirms the recent hawkish repricing or creates room for some reversal."

"With Fed pricing potentially moving in the opposite direction and difficult trade negotiations looming, the CAD will likely remain under pressure."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)