China: Trade resilience with rising risks – ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO notes that China benefits from solid foreign trade linked to the global tech and AI boom, but is still affected by the Iran conflict. April data show broad weakening, with sharply higher producer prices but low core CPI reflecting weak domestic demand. Growth and inflation forecasts remain unchanged, though global demand slowdown and lingering trade and geopolitical risks are highlighted.

Tech trade support and weak demand

"Despite foreign trade remaining solid on the back of the global tech/AI boom, the economy is not immune (though cushioned) to the Iran conflict."

"April data showed quite a broad weakening."

"Producer price inflation has risen sharply, but (core) CPI inflation remains low reflecting weak domestic demand."

"We keep our growth/inflation forecasts unchanged for now, after having tweaked them in March."

"A slowdown in global demand still is the biggest risk from the conflict."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)