EUR/GBP flat lines above 0.8600 as traders await ECB, BoE rate decisions

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The EUR/GBP cross holds steady near 0.8635 during the early European session on Tuesday. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decisions later on Thursday. Also, the UK employment report will be released.

EUR/GBP trades flat around 0.8635 in Tuesday’s early European session.
ECB is expected to hold interest rates steady at its March meeting.
BoE is likely to keep borrowing costs unchanged at 3.75% when it announces its decision on Thursday.

The ECB is expected to leave its benchmark deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% at its March meeting on Thursday. Interest rate futures are fully pricing a rate hike by the end of July and about a 55% odds of a second one by the end of December. But economists polled by Reuters March 9-13 stuck to their long‑held view of steady rates. ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said that the Iran war and its impact on inflation risk are forcing the ECB to raise interest rates sooner than anticipated.

The BoE is anticipated to keep interest rates on hold at 3.75% when it meets on Thursday. Economists at Oxford Economics said a worst-case scenario in which oil rises to $140 a barrel would push inflation significantly higher and tip the UK economy into a mild recession.

Traders will take more cues from the UK jobs data on Thursday. The ILO Unemployment Rate is projected to remain steady at 5.2% in January. Any signs of improvement in the UK labor market could lift the Pound Sterling against the Euro in the near term.

Euro FAQs

What is the Euro?

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.