EUR/USD declines to near 1.1700 ahead of Fed rate decision

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The EUR/USD pair trades in negative territory around 1.1715 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. Uncertainty over a potential Middle East ceasefire continues to boost a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar (USD) against the Euro (EUR).

EUR/USD loses ground to near 1.1715 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
Fed is widely expected to hold rates at its April policy meeting on Wednesday.
ECB is likely to keep its key interest rates unchanged at its next meeting on Thursday.

US President Donald Trump said Iran asked the US to lift a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz while the two sides negotiate an end to the two-month war. Mediators in Pakistan expect Iran to submit a revised proposal to end the war in the next few days, CNN reported on Tuesday, citing sources close to the mediation process.

Nonetheless, uncertainty in the Middle East remains high as Iran has consistently said it will not open the critical waterway as long as the US maintains its blockade.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming April policy meeting on Wednesday, maintaining the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. This would mark the third consecutive hold. Traders will closely monitor Jerome Powell’s press conference after the meeting for hints on how the Fed may react to the risks ahead.

The attention will shift to the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision on Thursday, with expectations of a "hawkish hold" as officials consider rate hikes in June or July. Goldman Sachs analysts see the ECB delivering two 25 basis point (bps) rate hikes in the months ahead. The first being in June, with the next in September, in bringing the deposit rate back to 2.50%.

Euro FAQs

What is the Euro?

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.