Rabobank strategists Molly Schwartz and Jane Foley highlight that USD net long futures positioning has more than quadrupled, reflecting resilient support for the Dollar. They note United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index inflation broadly met expectations and JOLTS data point to a firm labor market. The OIS curve indicates markets expect no change at the June Fed meeting and one rate hike by year end.

Net longs surge as Fed seen hiking

"USD net long positions have more than quadrupled from 850 contracts to 3,758."

"The PCE price index for April registered a price increase of 0.4% m/m and 3.8% y/y—largely in line with expectations."

"However, JOLTS jobs data suggested a resilient labor market, though the trends were indicative of a “no hire, no fire” environment."

"The OIS curve suggest investors are positioned for a no change decision at the June Fed meeting, and one hike by year end. "

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)