US S&P Global PMI expected to show steady business growth in June

What can we expect from the next S&P Global PMI report?

The impact this time could be larger than usual. Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) had a monetary policy meeting, and the announcement was not about interest rates, but about a shift in how the Fed decides and communicates. Sure, the dot plot in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed that policymakers now anticipate a rate hike this year, vs. the previous SEP, which anticipated a cut.

But market participants got far more nervous about Chair Kevin Warsh drastically reducing forward guidance. Not only was the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement halved, but Warsh also refrained from including his “views” in the dot plot. Warsh aims to completely shift the focus from guidance to rough data.

S&P Global PMIs may not be a game-changing data release and may have a limited impact on the FOMC’s decision. But market participants may well start weighing in data in the absence of forward guidance.

Additionally, the US Dollar (USD) heads into the release with uncertainty-related strength. The USD holds onto post-Fed gains and extends its advance amid caution over Middle East developments. Optimism reigned last week after the United States (US) and Iran signed a deal to extend the truce and go into deeper negotiations. The deal included the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, something markets welcomed strongly. Weekend news, however, hit such markets’ confidence as Iranian authorities announced they would close the critical sea passage again. Negotiations continue, as well as navigation through the Strait, but optimism faded.

The Greenback is also firmer amid mounting speculation the Fed will deliver an interest rate hike before year-end. Despite Warsh's disbelief in forward guidance, his words leaned hawkish, while half of the FOMC voting members added a dot on rate hikes.

Back to PMIs, the figures are expected to confirm economic expansion continues in the US, with modest ticks in any direction having little relevance, as long as the figures remain within expansion territory. For sure, better-than-anticipated figures would boost the Greenback, while weaker-than-anticipated figures could trigger a near-term USD slide.

It’s also worth noting that the PMIs include inflation and employment sub-components that could reinforce or deny the market’s belief of upcoming interest rate moves. Inflationary pressures have been on the rise, which means that an uptick in the inflation-related index could add to rate hike speculation and push the USD even higher.

When will the June flash US S&P Global PMIs be released, and how could they affect EUR/USD?

The S&P Global Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs reports will be released at 13:45 GMT on Tuesday, and as previously noted, are expected to show that US business activity continued to expand in June.

Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet Chief Analyst, notes: “The EUR/USD pair trades a handful of pips above the 2026 low of 1.1411 posted in March, and despite looking oversold in the near-term, the bearish momentum is strong enough to support lower lows ahead. From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows that technical indicators rotated south after a modest uptick within negative territory, while the pair extends its slide below all its moving averages. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) heads firmly lower at around 1.1560 and below the longer ones, usually an indication of sellers’ control.”

Bednarik adds: “A break below the aforementioned 2026 low exposes the 1.1360 price zone ahead of the 1.1300 threshold. Should the pair bounce, the first line of sellers aligns around 1.1470, a strong static resistance area, ahead of 1.1550.”

Fed FAQs

What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar?

Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings?

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD?

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar?

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

Economic Indicator

S&P Global Services PMI

The S&P Global Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US services sector. As the services sector dominates a large part of the economy, the Services PMI is an important indicator gauging the state of overall economic conditions. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the services sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among service providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.