• Lower Oil prices and optimism about US-Iran peace support the Greenback.
• Fed rate expectations remain as the main driver ahead of the US PCE inflation report.
• A hot PCE print could push NZD/USD lower, while softer data may offer some relief.

The NZD/USD pair traded lower on Monday, hovering near a two-month low at the 0.5720 area, as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) came under pressure from a firmer US Dollar (USD) and cautious market sentiment.

The Greenback gained support after optimism around United States (US)-Iran peace talks pushed oil prices lower and eased some geopolitical concerns. The US Dollar Index rose by around 0.24% to 101.00, while US Treasury yields remained firm as investors continued to price in a more restrictive outlook from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Reuters reported that global markets were mostly flat on Monday, with rate worries offsetting optimism from progress in US-Iran talks. Oil prices fell sharply after Washington eased sanctions on Tehran, allowing oil and petrochemical sales through August 21.

Looking ahead, attention turns to the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A stronger-than-expected reading could reinforce expectations that the Fed will keep policy restrictive, adding further downside pressure to NZD/USD. Softer inflation, however, could help the pair stabilize by reducing demand for the Greenback.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5720, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as it holds below both the 20-period and 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), now clustered above price around 0.5745 and 0.5834 respectively. The pair is hovering around a horizontal pivot at 0.5720, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 32 stays in bearish territory, hinting that downside pressure persists even as oversold conditions begin to emerge.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at the 0.5720 pivot, with further caps at 0.5733 and 0.5737, ahead of the 20-period SMA near 0.5745; beyond that, the 100-period SMA at about 0.5834 and the 0.5907–0.5965 band reinforce a broader supply zone. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.5708, where a break would expose fresh lows and potentially extend the current bearish phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)