EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Pair holds below 177.50 following retreat from descending channel top

• The nine-day EMA at 176.78 provides the main support that EUR/JPY may test.
• At 49.37, the 14-day Relative Strength Index points to neutral momentum.
• Near 178.00, the descending channel’s upper boundary presents the main resistance.

Trading at around 177.40 in Wednesday’s Asian session, EUR/JPY is retreating following two days of advances. Daily chart analysis points to a continued bearish bias, with the cross still trading inside a descending channel.

With EUR/JPY positioned between its short- and medium-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), the near-term outlook remains neutral, though upside scope is somewhat constrained. Immediate support comes from the nine-period EMA just beneath the price, whereas the 50-period EMA provides the first significant resistance above it. Following the recent recovery from the mid-175s, momentum appears balanced: the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 49.37, close to its midpoint.

For EUR/JPY, the nine-day EMA at 176.78 may provide the first support, ahead of the 12-month low of 175.07 recorded on 30 October. Below that, the descending channel’s lower boundary offers further support around 174.30. Should the cross fall below the channel, a move towards the region of the 15-month low at 169.72 would become possible.

The descending channel’s upper boundary near 178.00 may be the first resistance EUR/JPY tests on the upside, with the 50-day EMA at 178.70 next in view. Clearing that medium-term moving average would trigger a bullish reversal and support a move towards the area of the all-time high of 187.95, recorded on 17 April.

Japan signals intervention readiness as Yen policy vigilance increases

Japan’s increasingly watchful policy stance is highlighted by analysts at Commerzbank, who note that Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has "signaled readiness to intervene in currency markets if movements become disorderly." Her position reflects the authorities’ sensitivity to possible episodes of excessive Yen volatility, strengthening the view that policymakers are ready to intervene if market conditions become destabilising.

Japan’s warning on speculative moves accompanies a steadier Yen

A particularly firm response to recent Yen movements has come from Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, according to analysts at Commerzbank. She warned: “If there are disorderly movements or excessively speculative moves, we will take action.” In the bank’s assessment, the direct threat of intervention reflects greater official sensitivity to FX volatility. It also strengthens the perception that the authorities are prepared to respond should JPY movements become destabilising.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)