Ripple and Stellar outlook: XRP holds lower as XLM extends its rebound

• After losing over 5% so far this week, XRP trades around $1.055 on Thursday.
• Following the previous day’s 1.73% rebound, XLM trades near $0.148 as its modest recovery continues.
• Although momentum indicators suggest downside moves are stretched, deteriorating on-chain metrics limit the scope for a recovery in either token.

With XRP near $1.055 and XLM posting modest gains around $0.148, Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) are showing tentative signs of recovery on Thursday. Both cryptocurrencies nevertheless remain under bearish pressure. Despite the improvement in price action, declining on-chain activity continues to constrain the two altcoins’ recovery prospects.

On-chain data keeps the outlook cautious

A bearish picture for both altcoins emerges from CryptoQuant’s summary data. Large whale orders are evident in XRP’s spot and futures markets, where sellers retain the upper hand. Signs of heating in the spot market further underline the cautious, broadly bearish sentiment among Ripple traders.

Sellers also dominate XLM’s spot and futures markets. Although other metrics remain neutral, indications of large whale sell orders in the spot market point to a cautious-to-bearish stance among XLM traders.

XRP technical outlook: Downside momentum remains stretched

At $1.055 on Thursday, XRP remains well below its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which stand at $1.274, $1.293 and $1.354, respectively. This positioning sustains the bearish near-term outlook.

An oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading near 24 suggests the downside move is stretched. Selling pressure nevertheless persists, though it is gradually easing, according to the still-negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).

Any advance would first encounter horizontal resistance around $1.160, then the $1.300 region. Beyond that lies the EMA cluster, starting with the 200-day EMA near $1.354, with further resistance at $1.540 and $1.900.

The psychological $1.000 mark provides immediate support. Despite already oversold momentum, a sustained breach of that floor would likely leave XRP vulnerable to a deeper correction.

XLM technical outlook: Bearish trend loses strength

Trading at $0.148 on Thursday, XLM continues its retreat beneath the major EMAs, leaving the near-term bias bearish. Overhead, the 50-day EMA at $0.173, the 100-day EMA at $0.179 and the 200-day EMA at $0.185 form successive layers of supply. Rallies are therefore likely to remain constrained while the price stays below this cluster.

Persistent downward pressure is suggested by the RSI reading of 33, just above oversold territory. Meanwhile, a slightly negative MACD supports the view that the trend is weakening, rather than signalling a confirmed reversal.

A rebound would initially face the horizontal barrier around $0.153, followed by the 50-day EMA at $0.173. Together, these levels present a more substantial obstacle should buyers attempt a recovery. Further upside targets lie at the 100-day EMA at $0.179, the 200-day EMA at $0.185, the previous trendline break area near $0.208 and the higher horizontal resistance at $0.234.

At $0.136, horizontal support is the only nearby structural floor. A breach would likely pave the way for a deeper decline.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)