EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Retreats below 177.00 close to nine-day EMA

The 12-month low at 175.07 could provide the first support for EUR/JPY.
At around 46, the 14-day Relative Strength Index points to neutral to subdued momentum.
At 177.03, the nine-day EMA provides the nearest resistance.

Trading near 176.90 in Thursday’s Asian session, EUR/JPY is recording a second consecutive day of losses. On the daily chart, the cross remains inside a descending channel, pointing to a continued bearish bias.

With EUR/JPY below both its nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), the near-term outlook remains constrained. Both the shorter- and longer-term EMAs sit above the price, signalling that downside risks persist. Meanwhile, a reading of around 46 on the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates neutral to subdued momentum, rather than oversold conditions, allowing scope for further corrective pressure.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

A decline in EUR/JPY could bring the 12-month low of 175.07, recorded on 30 October, into focus before the descending channel’s lower boundary near 173.60. Should the cross break beneath the channel, the area around the 15-month low of 169.72 would come into view.

A recovery in EUR/JPY could first challenge the nine-day EMA at 177.03. Beyond this immediate resistance lie the descending channel’s upper boundary near 178.20 and the 50-day EMA at 178.37. Clearing that medium-term moving average would trigger a bullish reversal, supporting a move towards the area around the all-time high of 187.95, set on 17 April.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY — EUR/JPY Remains Within a Descending Channel: Daily Chart

Stronger domestic demand is playing an increasingly significant supporting role in the Japan Government Bond market, according to analysts at MUFG. Drawing on Ministry of Finance figures, they observe that “the data confirming this pick-up in JGB buying by Japanese households comes from the MoF,” which has a section of its website devoted to individual JGBs. The issuance figures published there “show a marked pick-up in issuance to individuals with the November total for 3-, 5-, and 10-year totalling JPY 2,026bn, the largest single-month total,” highlighting the extent of the recent change in household participation.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Performs Weakest Against the Yen Today

Today’s percentage movements in the Euro (EUR) against the major currencies listed are set out below. Against the Japanese Yen, the Euro recorded its weakest performance.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.13%	0.14%	-0.10%	0.06%	0.02%	0.05%	0.00%
EUR	-0.13%		0.01%	-0.21%	-0.05%	-0.11%	-0.09%	-0.13%
GBP	-0.14%	-0.01%		-0.21%	-0.10%	-0.13%	-0.09%	-0.14%
JPY	0.10%	0.21%	0.21%		0.13%	0.10%	0.11%	0.09%
CAD	-0.06%	0.05%	0.10%	-0.13%		-0.02%	-0.01%	-0.04%
AUD	-0.02%	0.11%	0.13%	-0.10%	0.02%		0.03%	-0.02%
NZD	-0.05%	0.09%	0.09%	-0.11%	0.00%	-0.03%		-0.01%
CHF	-0.01%	0.13%	0.14%	-0.09%	0.04%	0.02%	0.00%

Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the Euro on the left and following its row across to the US Dollar gives the percentage change for EUR (base)/USD (quote) in the corresponding cell.