Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Climbs Towards $50.50 Despite Bets on a Fed Rate Hike

• Stronger US CPI data fuels bets on a December Fed rate rise, potentially weighing on Silver.
• With headline inflation forecast at 6.6% YoY, Friday’s US October PPI release is traders’ next focus for signals on price pressures.
• In a Truth Social post, President Trump dismissed prospects for an Iran deal, saying those days had long passed.

Rising Treasury yields, reflecting mounting expectations of a more aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) policy stance, may pose a challenge for Silver prices. Nevertheless, Silver (XAG/USD) is recovering from the previous day’s modest decline, trading at around $50.50 per troy ounce in Friday’s Asian session.

Rabobank breaks down 2026 moves in the 10-year US Treasury yield

To assess the forces shaping long-term yields and this year’s movements, Rabobank analysts draw on a breakdown of the 10-year US Treasury yield. They describe their latest US rates research as “a detailed decomposition of the 10yr UST yield and how it has changed in 2026,” providing a structured framework for their analysis.

Expectations of a December Fed rate increase have strengthened following this week’s higher-than-forecast US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures. A 50-basis-point rise should be considered if core inflation stays elevated, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now assign a probability of nearly 85.5% to a rate increase at the central bank’s next meeting on 8-9 December, with a 14.5% chance of a half-point rise.

October’s headline US Producer Price Index (PPI) is forecast to rise by 6.6% YoY, while the core measure is expected to increase by 5.0% YoY over the same reporting period. Due on Friday, the figures will be watched for further indications of inflation pressures and their implications for the Fed’s interest rate decision.

Separately, CNBC reported that US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the US should stop pursuing an agreement with Iran. In a post on Truth Social, Trump wrote: “We don’t need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed,”