On March 2, an adviser to the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that the Strait of Hormuz had been shut down and that Iran would target all ships attempting transit. The statement marks a further escalation of several days of regional conflict, pushing the situation to a critical “oil supply cutoff” threshold.

The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most vital oil transit chokepoint. According to Kpler data, approximately 13 million barrels of crude oil per day passed through the strait in 2025, accounting for around 31% of global seaborne oil flows. Since the large-scale U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28, the strait has remained in a highly dangerous state, with one oil tanker struck and sunk during the early stages of the conflict.

In early Asian trading on March 3, international oil markets reacted sharply. WTI crude for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose more than 10% at one point to $75.33, while Brent crude for May delivery jumped 13% intraday to $82.37. Although gains later narrowed, market participants widely believe that if the blockade persists, the tangible impact of supply disruption will increasingly materialize.

At the same time, European natural gas futures surged more than 40%, as QatarEnergy suspended LNG production following attacks on its facilities. Around 20% of global liquefied natural gas exports are now at risk. S&P Global Platts has temporarily suspended price assessments for crude grades that require transit through the Strait of Hormuz, signaling that pricing benchmarks for roughly one-third of global crude trade are being disrupted.