TMGM Daily Market Breakfast: 2026-08-12

Morning Snapshot

• Oil prices rose as hopes for a near-term US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz faded, with Brent nearing USD 90 a barrel and gas oil climbing to just under USD 1,350 per ton amid tighter diesel supply and refinery outage reports.
• A Jiji Press report said the Bank of Japan may consider another interest rate increase at its September 17-18 policy meeting after leaving rates unchanged in July, citing upside inflation risks linked to yen weakness, higher oil prices and AI-related demand.

Overview

The reporting period was dominated by two high-importance themes: renewed energy-market strain linked to the Strait of Hormuz and shifting expectations for Japanese monetary policy. Both developments carried broad relevance for regional markets, with oil supply concerns feeding into inflation discussions and central-bank expectations.

In commodities, fading prospects for a near-term US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz coincided with a sharp rise in crude and refined-product prices, while reports of refinery outages added to concerns about diesel availability. In Japan, a Jiji Press report indicated the Bank of Japan may consider a further rate increase in September, while thin holiday trading kept the yen in a narrow range amid continued intervention speculation.

Energy & Commodities

Strait of Hormuz uncertainty lifts crude and diesel prices

Oil prices rose during the reporting window as hopes for a near-term US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz faded. According to the supplied reports, Iran set out conditions for reopening the strait, including demands for reparations, and US President Donald Trump responded with a demand for compensation payments for victims of the conflict. Commerzbank said Brent crude rose by 5% to nearly USD 90 per barrel, its highest level since the end of July, while gas oil climbed by almost 10% to just under USD 1,350 per ton, the highest since the end of April. The reports also said refinery outages and drone attacks on refineries in Saudi Arabia, Russia and Libya were exacerbating supply concerns, with the gasoil crack spread moving back above USD 70 per barrel and global diesel supply tightening even though the European market was not directly affected. Separate coverage also said WTI traded around USD 83.50 during the European session.

Macroeconomics & Central Banks

Report says Bank of Japan may consider a September rate increase

A Jiji Press report said the Bank of Japan may consider an additional interest rate increase at its September 17-18 policy meeting after leaving rates unchanged in July. The supplied coverage said the move would be aimed at countering upside inflation risks, with domestic prices facing pressure from yen depreciation, elevated global crude oil prices and rapid growth in artificial intelligence-related demand. Separate reporting during the period said the yen traded in a tight range around 159.30 per US dollar in thin conditions because Japanese markets were closed for the Mountain Day holiday, while market participants also discussed the possibility of further official intervention. The same report said the yen had retraced about half of the gains made during its recent intervention-driven rally.

Scheduled Events

• Bank of Japan policy meeting — null: The supplied articles said the Bank of Japan's next policy meeting is scheduled for September 17-18, when it may consider an additional interest rate increase.

Closing Summary

The main developments in the reporting window were a renewed rise in oil and diesel prices tied to Strait of Hormuz uncertainty and a report that the Bank of Japan may consider another rate increase in September amid persistent inflation pressures.