AUD/USD: War risks and RBA tension – DBS
By FXStreet Insights Team
Date Published: 16 Mar 2026 | Date Modified: 16 Mar 2026
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DBS Group economist Philip Wee notes that the Australian Dollar is supported by hawkish domestic fundamentals but constrained by global risk aversion linked to the Iran War. Markets expect a back-to-back RBA hike to 4.10% on March 17, framed as an insurance move.
DBS Group economist Philip Wee notes that the Australian Dollar is supported by hawkish domestic fundamentals but constrained by global risk aversion linked to the Iran War. Markets expect a back-to-back RBA hike to 4.10% on March 17, framed as an insurance move. AUD/USD support is seen around 0.69–0.70, conditional on a relatively dovish Fed and CNY strength.
AUD weighed by war and RBA stance
"AUD is caught between hawkish domestic fundamentals and a deteriorating global risk environment."
"Following Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser’s recent signalling that the economy was running beyond its sustainable capacity, markets have priced in a back-to-back 25-bps hike to 4.10% at the March 17 policy meeting."
"RBA Governor Michele Bullock has acknowledged the Iran War as a double-edged sword that necessitates a “high alert, data-dependent” stance."
"Hence, AUD/USD will rely more on a net dovish-sounding Fed and continued CNY appreciation for support around 0.69-0.70."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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