EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Is Crude Recovery Keeping Euro Stalled Below 0.8370?

• EUR/GBP struggles to establish itself above 0.8370, although it remains above the previous range ceiling at 0.8360.
• Despite upbeat market sentiment, a modest recovery in Oil prices is putting pressure on the Euro.
• An easing of inflationary pressures in October was confirmed by Germany’s final HICP figures.

Positive risk sentiment is being counterbalanced by a recovery in Oil prices, leaving the Euro (EUR) almost unchanged against the British Pound (GBP) on Wednesday. While EUR/GBP has so far stayed above 0.8360, the upper boundary of its earlier trading range, it has yet to establish itself above 0.8370.

With traders becoming increasingly concerned about the lack of progress towards a Middle East peace deal, Crude Oil has recovered from Tuesday’s lows. Brent Oil has moved back above $90.

Germany’s Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), published earlier on Wednesday, pointed to a modest easing in October’s inflationary pressures. Confirming the preliminary readings, the final HICP showed a monthly decline of 0.1% and year-on-year growth of 2.8% in October, compared with respective increases of 0.6% and 3.3% in September.

With few releases on Wednesday’s UK economic calendar, investors are turning their attention to Thursday’s Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. Markets are preparing for moderate growth, supported by a strong manufacturing sector, which would reinforce hopes of another BoE rate hike in the opening months of 2027.

Technical Analysis: Can Strengthening Bullish Momentum Lift EUR/GBP?

A mildly bullish near-term bias persists in EUR/GBP at 0.8367, with the pair trading just above the former resistance zone at 0.8360. Buyers appear to retain control while this immediate support holds: the Relative Strength Index (14) is leaning towards positive territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is marginally positive.

For now, buyers have been unable to sustain advances beyond 0.8370. Above that level, potential resistance lies around 0.8380, the high of 28 October, followed by the 26 October high near 0.8400.

Conversely, a bearish move through support around 0.8360, marked by the highs of 30 October and 2 November, would bring the 6 and 9 November lows near 0.8335 into focus. The year-to-date lows around 0.8320 would be the next level to watch.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)