Japan: Activity rebound supports steady BoJ policy – ING
By FXStreet Insights Team
Date Published: 21 Feb 2026 | Date Modified: 21 Feb 2026
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ING economist Min Joo Kang expects a strong rebound in Japanese activity data next week despite a weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP recovery. Industrial production and retail sales are forecast to rise in January, while Tokyo CPI inflation should ease further.
ING economist Min Joo Kang expects a strong rebound in Japanese activity data next week despite a weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP recovery. Industrial production and retail sales are forecast to rise in January, while Tokyo CPI inflation should ease further. Core inflation below 2% is seen allowing the Bank of Japan to maintain its 0.75% policy rate at the March meeting.
Rebounding data with easing inflation
"Next week will see a busy data calendar in Japan."
"While fourth-quarter GDP recovery was below expectations, we expect monthly activity figures to show a strong rebound."
"Industrial production and retail sales are likely to increase significantly in January, aided by fiscal spending and solid winter bonuses."
"Meanwhile, Tokyo's CPI inflation is expected to ease further as energy, utility, and food prices soften."
"Core inflation excluding fresh food should fall below 2%, which will allow the Bank of Japan to maintain its current 0.75% rate at the March meeting."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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