罗马尼亚：温和增长支持更早的国家银行降息 – 荷兰国际集团

罗马尼亚：温和增长支持更早的国家银行降息 – 荷兰国际集团

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荷兰国际集团（ING）罗马尼亚团队指出，弱于预期的 GDP 和 2025 年第四季度的急剧收缩给通胀带来了下行风险，并可能促使罗马尼亚国家银行提前启动宽松周期

荷兰国际集团（ING）罗马尼亚团队指出，弱于预期的 GDP 和 2025 年第四季度的急剧收缩给通胀带来了下行风险，并可能促使罗马尼亚国家银行提前启动宽松周期。他们仍然预计将在 2026 年 5 月进行首次降息，并在全年内总共降息 100 个基点，而财政整顿压力可能因增长放缓而减轻。

疲软数据倾向于促使罗马尼亚国家银行宽松

“今天的弱于预期的 GDP 数据给通胀前景带来了明显的下行风险，并可能鼓励罗马尼亚国家银行提前启动宽松周期。”

“与此同时，经济急剧放缓可能会增加政府减缓财政整顿步伐的压力，考虑到 setback 的规模。”

“我们继续预计罗马尼亚国家银行将在 2026 年 5 月进行首次降息，并在全年内总共降息 100 个基点。”

（本文由人工智能工具生成，并由编辑审核。）

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