美元:美元面临下行风险 – 荷兰国际集团
荷兰国际集团(ING)分析师Chris Turner、Frantisek Taborsky和Francesco Pesole指出,美国与伊朗停火的确认以及霍尔木兹海峡的重新开放,随着能源价格下跌和风险资产反弹,对美元形成了压力。

荷兰国际集团(ING)分析师Chris Turner、Frantisek Taborsky和Francesco Pesole指出,确认美伊停火以及霍尔木兹海峡重新开放导致能源价格下跌和风险资产反弹,给美元带来压力。他们强调,本周有七个G10央行召开会议,并认为周三的美联储决议可能会限制美元指数(DXY)在99.00/99.15区域附近的进一步下跌。

美联储会议预计将限制美元指数跌幅

“美伊停火的消息,更重要的是霍尔木兹海峡即将重新开放的消息,使能源价格回落至三月初水平,全球股市也迎来了一波不错的反弹。”

“更大的反应可能出现在收益率曲线的短端,央行不得不清理四五月能源价格飙升所带来的通胀混乱。”

“不过,本周最大的关注点将是凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh)作为美联储主席的首次会议。”

“市场显然预期沟通语气将不那么鸽派(放松倾向和预计2026年降息预期被移除),但我们怀疑他将不得不对通胀采取强硬表态,以避免扰乱债券市场的长端。”

“截至目前,美元指数今日的跌幅相当有限。”

(本文借助人工智能工具生成,并由编辑审核。)

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