美元:通胀焦点塑造利率预期 – 道明证券
道明证券(TD Securities)经济学家指出,美国国债收益率上升,原因是中东紧张局势和即将到来的供应消息引发关注,市场现将注意力转向4月份美国(US)消费者物价指数(CPI)。

道明证券经济学家指出,美国国债收益率上升,源于中东紧张局势和即将到来的供应消息,市场关注点现转向四月份美国消费者价格指数(CPI)。他们预计核心CPI将高于市场共识,整体CPI将保持坚挺,主要受住房调整以及能源和食品价格推动,这可能在未来几天影响美元和利率定价。

美国CPI和收益率成为焦点

“周二,市场关注CPI,我们预测核心环比增长为0.38%,略高于市场共识的0.36%。”

“我们还预计整体环比增长为0.56%,因油价持续传导至通胀。”

“我们预计四月核心CPI通胀将加速至0.38%环比,主要由于住房价格因方法调整反弹(共识:0.3%),油价也可能传导至机票价格。”

“核心商品价格应保持低迷,关税传导有限。”

“我们还预计整体CPI将再次走强,环比为0.56%(共识:0.6%),因汽油价格强劲以及食品价格在三月持平后反弹。”

(本文由人工智能工具协助生成,编辑审核。)

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