日元：中性利率辩论支持逐步上涨 – 德国商业银行

日元：中性利率辩论支持逐步上涨 – 德国商业银行

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德国商业银行（Commerzbank）Volkmar Baur 预计日本央行（BoJ）将在 2026 年再加息两次，使政策更接近上升的中性利率，并支持日元在下半年相对于美元（USD）和欧元（EUR）适度升值。

德国商业银行（Commerzbank）的Volkmar Baur预计日本央行（BoJ）将在2026年再加息两次，使政策利率更接近上升的中性利率，并支持日元对美元（USD）和欧元（EUR）在今年下半年适度升值。他还预测美元/日元和欧元/日元将在2026年底至2027年从当前水平小幅下跌。

预计日本央行收紧政策将提振日元

“当前的政策利率0.75%仍低于中性利率的最低估计值。”

“总体而言，可以说金融状况仍具有刺激性，这支持了关键利率尚未达到中性水平的判断。”

“这支持我们认为日本央行今年将再加息两次的观点。”

“因此，美国和欧洲对这些预期的消化应导致日元在今年下半年相对于美元和欧元升值。”

（本文借助人工智能工具撰写，并由编辑审核。）

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