泰国央行：在石油冲击展开时维持利率不变 – UOB

泰国央行：在石油冲击展开时维持利率不变 – UOB

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大华银行经济学家恩里科·塔努维贾和萨提特·塔兰萨亚预计，尽管由于油价冲击导致总体通胀上升，泰国银行将维持1.00%的BoT 1天回购利率，至少到2027年第一季度。

大华银行经济学家恩里科·塔努维贾和萨提特·塔兰萨亚预计，尽管由于石油冲击导致总体通胀上升，泰国银行将把BoT 1天回购利率维持在1.00%，至少到2027年第一季度。市场普遍认为，央行将关注二次效应和通胀预期，而财政政策应提供有针对性的、临时性的支持，而不是广泛的、无期限的补贴。

央行将忽视首次上涨的影响

"在我们的基线预测中，我们仍然预计央行将在2026年将政策利率维持在1.00%。"

"对于泰国银行来说，关键问题不是首次上涨的总体通胀本身，而是这一冲击是否会扩展到交通费用、熟食、服务价格、工资设定或通胀预期。"

"在政策层面，适当的组合可能是耐心的货币政策和更有针对性的财政支持。"

"在财政方面，为脆弱家庭、公共交通和其他敏感用户提供有针对性和临时性的救助，比起逐渐难以融资且透明度降低的广泛补贴制度更为可取。"

(本文由人工智能工具协助创建，并由编辑审核。)

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