ING’s Francesco Pesole expects Fedspeak and developments around the Strait of Hormuz to be the key drivers for the Dollar this week, with front-end USD rates remaining central for DXY. He notes upside risks for USD in the near term but does not see a new strong Dollar cycle, and highlights lower Oil prices as a potential brake on gains.

Fedspeak and geopolitics steer Dollar

"We expect the two main drivers for the dollar this week to be Fedspeak and news on whether Strait of Hormuz flows have continued."

"In this quieter period of the month for data releases, Fedspeak should be the main trigger for any adjustments in front-end USD rates, which have been the single most important driver of USD of late."

"For now, our dollar call remains unchanged."

"Near-term risks remain skewed to the upside, but we do not see last week as the start of a new strong dollar cycle."

"Markets may try to use the next data or Fedspeak catalyst to price in 50bp of Fed tightening in 2026, but unless there is a fresh Middle East escalation, lower oil prices should contain USD gains."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)