Societe Generale analysts note a quiet data calendar ahead of key US payrolls, with a market whisper of 40k versus a 60k consensus and an SG economics forecast of 75k. Recent ISM manufacturing data and a 0.5% monthly rise in control retail sales support optimism for 1Q US GDP, with the Atlanta Fed tracking growth near 2%.

Payrolls, inflation signals and growth tracking

"The data calendar today is low key. US payrolls are due tomorrow: the whisper number is down to 40k v consensus of 60k. SG economics forecast 75k."

"Macro data yesterday marginally beat on the ISM manufacturing (52.7 for March) but the story is that of prices paid leaping by almost 8pts to78.3, the highest since Jun-22 or the aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine."

"This will have been factored in the Fed scenario based on the story of tariffs but energy is adding another layer of price pressures."

"Separately, the 0.5% m/m gain in control retail sales in February will bolster optimism for 1Q GDP. The Atlanta Fed is currently tracking growth of around 2%."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)