亚洲外汇:尽管有所停顿,疲软态势依然存在 – 华侨银行
华侨银行策略师沈慕祥和黄志伟观察到,亚洲外汇在经历了与伊朗冲突相关的多周抛售后,出现了初步稳定,但将此走势定性为盘整。

华侨银行策略师沈慕祥和黄志伟观察到,亚洲外汇在与伊朗冲突相关的多周抛售后显示出试探性稳定,但将此走势定性为盘整。若冲突未能迅速解决,受增长和油价影响较大的货币如韩元(KRW)、菲律宾比索(PHP)和泰铢(THB)可能仍将保持疲软,尽管政策制定者在多对货币接近多年或历史低点时倾向于抑制波动。

韩元、菲律宾比索和泰铢仍然脆弱

“自伊朗冲突开始以来,亚洲外汇在多周抛售后显示出试探性稳定的迹象,但整体基调依然脆弱。”

“亚洲外汇贬值的暂停更像是盘整,市场仍在权衡缓和冲突的希望与冲突升级的风险。”

“与此同时,冲击可能已经传导至实体经济,体现在包括韩国和菲律宾在内的亚洲国家的政策反应中,同时对食品、化肥和旅游的溢出风险正在积聚。”

“如果伊朗冲突未能迅速解决,受增长、情绪和油价影响的亚洲外汇,包括韩元、菲律宾比索和泰铢,可能继续走弱。”

“尽管如此,我们也预计政策制定者将平抑价格波动,因为部分亚洲外汇已接近多年低点。”

(本文借助人工智能工具撰写,并由编辑审核。)

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