印度卢比：结构性流入推动曲线变化 – 星展银行

印度卢比：结构性流入推动曲线变化 – 星展银行

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星展集团研究部经济学家谢瑞琳分析了印度储备银行（RBI）6月5日资本流动自由化后印度政府债券的表现。

星展集团研究部经济学家周雪琳分析了印度储备银行（RBI）6月5日资本流动自由化后印度政府债券的表现。她指出，2年期印度政府债券（IGBs）因RBI政策预期的重新定价而出现大幅反弹，而10年期债券则在外资流入的支持下表现较为温和，结论是结构性需求和加息预期的减弱可能导致收益率曲线适度趋平。

RBI重新定价与结构性债券需求

“自公告以来，2年期IGB收益率已压缩30个基点，此举主要由RBI政策预期的重新定价推动。”

“目前，2年期收益率进一步下行的空间似乎较为有限。”

“尽管RBI言辞表明近期加息可能性不大，但风险仍偏向上行，尤其是通过食品通胀渠道。”

“与主要反映一次性重新定价的短端走势不同，长端反弹似乎基于持续的资产重新配置，表明10年期债券仍有进一步压缩的空间。”

“综合来看，这种分化表明收益率曲线未来有一定的适度趋平空间。”

（本文借助人工智能工具撰写，并由编辑审核。）

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