Near $53: Silver Price Forecast as XAG/USD jumps despite higher US bond yields

• Near $53: Silver price surges despite US bond sell-off.
• US Treasury yields climb after October US CPI exceeds forecasts.
• Elevated US inflation is also likely to persist next year, according to Commerzbank.

Almost 3% higher, Silver (XAG/USD) approaches $53.00 in Wednesday’s European session. The rally comes despite intensifying debate over whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) could opt for a supersize interest rate increase at its December policy meeting. October’s stronger-than-forecast United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures fuelled that debate and triggered a sharp rise in US Treasury yields.

October CPI beat sustains US Treasury pressure

The latest bond sell-off was driven primarily by the inflation release, according to Deutsche Bank strategists. They note that “that US CPI print drove the biggest moves of the day, with the monthly core CPI print for October above consensus at +0.30% (vs. +0.2% expected).”

Describing the persistence of price pressures, Deutsche Bank adds that “moreover, it was the third consecutive month with core CPI at +0.3%, and if you take those three months together, the annualised pace for core CPI is running at +3.75%.” The bank says “that’s the fastest pace on that measure since April 2024, so it made it increasingly difficult to dismiss this as a blip.”

Headline figures were stronger still, the bank stresses: “meanwhile, the headline CPI numbers were faster still, with monthly headline CPI at +0.35% (vs. +0.3% expected), with the 3-month annualised pace at +5.72%.” Assessing the market response, its strategists say “for markets, the clearest impact could be seen in US Treasuries, with yields surging across the curve.”

At the time of writing, the 10-year US Treasury yield stands around 5%, up 2.4%. Higher returns on interest-bearing US assets typically reduce the relative attraction of assets such as Silver, which pays no yield.

2027: Commerzbank’s expected turning point for US inflation

US price pressures remain uncomfortably high, Commerzbank economists warn, noting that “prices are still rising too quickly, even though the increase was somewhat smaller than in September.” In their view, underlying inflation has stalled rather than continued to improve: “core inflation, a key gauge of the underlying trend, thus remains (too) high and is no longer trending downward,” they stress. Their near-term assessment is that “the strong economy and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East suggest that inflation is unlikely to ease in the near term,” while further ahead, they judge that “inflation is not expected to decline until 2027, and even then, it is likely to remain above a level consistent with price stability.”

This outlook is likely to maintain pressure on Silver prices.

$53.89 EMA Caps Silver’s Technical Outlook

$52.94 is XAG/USD’s current level on the daily chart. Trading below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $53.89 leaves the short-term bias bearish. Recent stabilisation attempts have failed to recover this dynamic barrier. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded from oversold territory to 43.6 but is still below 50. That points to a modest reduction in downward momentum, not a confirmed trend reversal.

A sustained move above $53.89, the 20-day EMA and first resistance level, would be required to ease the bearish bias and allow a more substantial recovery. The supplied indicators identify no clear nearby structural support. As long as XAG/USD stays below the EMA, it remains vulnerable to further declines if renewed selling pressure takes it beneath recent lows.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)