5.36% upside target for US 10-year yield – Societe Generale

4.81% trendline support has held for 10‑year US Treasuries. Societe Generale’s rates team highlights the sharp advance that followed, with yields now testing the 50‑day moving average. Consolidation between 4.81% and 5.05% remains possible in the bank’s view. A break above resistance, however, could open the way for a larger rise towards the 5.16%–5.18% gap, followed by October’s high around 5.36%.

4.81% support holds as Treasury yields build on post‑CPI gains

"10y UST has staged a sharp up move after defending the confluence of a multi-month ascending trend line and the January 2025 peak near 4.81%. It is now challenging the 50-DMA."

"A short-term consolidation cannot be ruled out within the limits of 4.81% and the recent pivot high of 5.05%. If this hurdle is overcome, 10y UST could embark on a larger up move towards the recent down gap at 5.16%/5.18%, followed by the October high near 5.36%."

"US: 10y IRS consolidates post CPI gains around 4.60% as cash trading resumes. Support 4.53%, resistance 4.66%."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)