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US Treasuries: Markets price in further hikes, driving bear flattening – TD Securities
In early 2027, highly negative BE carry could weigh on inflation-linked assets, TD Securities warns. The bank reports a sharp bear flattening in US Treasuries as stronger US CPI and hawkish remarks from Governor Waller prompted markets to price in further Fed tightening. Yields rose at the front end, while breakevens widened.
2027 BE Carry Headwinds and Front-End Repricing
"Rates: Treasuries bear flattened sharply as the market penciled in more rate hikes."
"Markets leaned into Governor Waller's comments from earlier in the session around potentially needing a "catch up" 50bp hike, bringing pricing for hikes in December higher from 25bp to around 28bp and increasing pricing for hikes in 2027 to 45bp from 34bp."
"This pressured the front-end sharply higher, flattening the curve and moving BEs wider."
"Markets will be waiting on further Fedspeak to confirm whether other FOMC members agree with Waller before pushing December pricing higher."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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