Near $87.50: WTI slumps as US inventories surge, with geopolitical risks in focus

• $87.50 is the level WTI falls towards in early Asian trading on Friday.
• A deal with Iran is unnecessary for the US, Trump says.
• Global oil flows face risks as attacks intensify on Saudi energy infrastructure.

WTI trades near $87.50. The US crude oil benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), is losing momentum in Friday’s early Asian session as US crude inventories rise.

Oversupply concerns have mounted following a sizeable increase in US crude inventories last week. Energy Information Administration (EIA) figures show stockpiles rose by 9 million barrels in the week ending 5 November, reversing the previous week’s decline of 5.267 barrels. Markets had expected a draw of 1 million barrels.

According to CNBC, US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the US should stop pursuing an agreement with Iran. In a Truth Social post, Trump wrote: “We don’t need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed,”

Just over a week before those remarks, Republicans had suffered heavy losses in the US midterm election. Vance and other Republicans have attributed the losses to the Iran war, launched by the US and Israel in late February. Concerns that the US-Iran war had no end in sight grew following Trump’s comments.

Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz put global oil flows at risk as attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure intensified.

Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis claimed attacks on three Saudi targets: a pumping station on the East-West oil pipeline, an oil facility in the Red Sea city of Yanbu, and an Aramco building in Riyadh, the capital.

Separately, four oil tankers were struck by explosions in the Strait of Hormuz after disregarding warnings, Iran’s military said on Thursday.

1.2% Brent rise as Hormuz tensions support prices

Commerzbank Research analysts describe the overnight developments as follows: "tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalated overnight," citing Iran’s IRGC Navy’s claim that "two additional oil tankers struck mines while attempting to transit the waterway, with both vessels reportedly on fire." On the price response, Commerzbank observes that "Brent crude rose 1.2% to USD92.63, as the latest Hormuz mine incidents provided a floor to prices despite the broader November slide of approximately 17%."

Technical Analysis: WTI remains range-bound in the near term

WTI US Oil’s daily chart suggests a neutral, range-bound near-term outlook. Prices sit just above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), but remain well beneath the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day SMA centre line, which limits upside. Broader consolidation is supported by the lower Bollinger band at $82.30. At 40.6, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, signalling modest bearish momentum rather than a decisive break in trend.

The Bollinger 20-day SMA centre band near $94.60 provides the first resistance, followed by a firmer ceiling at the upper Bollinger band of $106.85. Immediate downside support lies at the 100-day SMA of $87.00. Below that, the lower Bollinger band near $82.30 forms a more significant structural floor, where buyers would likely seek to protect the broader uptrend against a deeper correction.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)