TMGM Daily Market Breakfast: 2026-08-19

Morning Snapshot

• US President Donald Trump said he paused planned 50% tariffs against Canada for three days after overnight negotiations with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.
• President Trump said there are no talks with Iran and that the US naval blockade remains in force while the Hormuz Strait remains open and operating.
• Oil prices extended gains during Asian trading, with WTI near $84.80 a barrel, amid reports of escalating US-Iran tensions and continuing concerns around supply risks.
• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said inflation remains too high and that the Reserve Bank of Australia would have to raise rates again if price pressures do not come down.
• The US Securities and Exchange Commission proposed Regulation Crypto Assets, including exemptions that would allow eligible crypto issuers to raise $5 million or $75 million without Securities Act registration.
• Ahead of the latest UK inflation release, reporting indicated the Office for National Statistics was due to publish July CPI data at 06:00 GMT.
• The US dollar traded near 159.50 against the yen after approaching 160.00, with the move coming after the late-July coordinated intervention by Tokyo and Washington.

Overview

Trade policy and geopolitics dominated the reporting window, with Washington temporarily pausing planned 50% tariffs on Canadian goods after last-minute talks with Ottawa and separately maintaining a hard public stance on Iran. The Iran developments were also reflected in energy coverage, where oil prices extended recent gains amid supply concerns tied to the regional situation.

Central bank and regulatory developments were also in focus. In Australia, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said inflation remained too high and indicated further rate increases would be required if price pressures did not ease. In the United States, the SEC proposed a new framework for certain crypto asset investment contracts, while UK inflation data was highlighted as a scheduled macroeconomic release during the session.

Currency markets also remained attentive to Japan, where the dollar traded close to 160 yen after giving back a large part of the move triggered by the coordinated late-July intervention by Japanese and US authorities.

Trade Policy & Geopolitical Developments

Trump pauses planned 50% tariffs on Canada for three days after talks with Carney

US President Donald Trump said he had paused planned 50% tariffs against Canada for a three-day period following overnight negotiations with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. Earlier reporting during the window said Trump and Carney were holding last-minute talks just hours before the United States was set to impose 50% tariffs on Canadian goods including hockey sticks, wine and other imports. The later update indicated the tariffs were paused rather than implemented immediately.

Trump says no Iran talks are under way and naval blockade remains in force

US President Donald Trump said there are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with Iran. He added that the naval blockade remains in full force and effect, while stating that the Hormuz Strait is open and operating and that water mines have been removed or detonated. The article also said Politico reported that the Trump administration was intensifying its stance, although the supplied text was incomplete on further details.

Energy & Commodities

WTI trades near $85 as US-Iran tensions remain in focus

West Texas Intermediate crude extended gains for a fourth consecutive day and traded around $84.80 per barrel during Asian hours on Wednesday, according to the supplied report. The article linked the move to escalating US-Iran tensions, adding to market attention on supply risks tied to the Middle East situation.

Macroeconomics & Central Banks

RBA Deputy Governor Hauser says further rate increases would be needed if inflation stays high

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said inflation is too high and that the central bank needs to raise interest rates to bring price pressures down. He added that the RBA will have to raise rates again if inflation does not come down, underscoring the bank's continued focus on inflation control.

UK July CPI release highlighted as key scheduled inflation report

Reporting during the window said the UK Office for National Statistics was due to release its July Consumer Price Index report at 06:00 GMT. The article described the release as high impact and said inflation was set to rebound to a four-month high because of higher energy bills, but the supplied item was a preview rather than the published data outcome.

Dollar trades near 159.50 yen after late-July coordinated intervention

The dollar traded near 159.50 against the Japanese yen on Tuesday after reaching a session high just short of 160.00, the strongest level since Tokyo and Washington intervened together at the end of July. The supplied report said the yen had given back about half of the move associated with that record intervention.

Policy & Regulatory Developments

SEC proposes Regulation Crypto Assets framework for certain crypto fundraising

The US Securities and Exchange Commission proposed Regulation Crypto Assets, a new regulatory framework for certain crypto asset investment contracts. The proposal includes two exemptions that would allow eligible crypto issuers to raise $5 million or $75 million without Securities Act registration, while the agency said the framework is intended to clarify when crypto assets and related transactions fall under federal securities laws. The SEC said it will accept public comments for 60 days after the proposed release is published in the Federal Register.

Scheduled Events

• UK Office for National Statistics July Consumer Price Index release — 2026-08-19 07:00 BST: The Office for National Statistics was due to publish the July CPI report, which the supplied article described as a high-impact inflation release.

Closing Summary

The reporting window was led by a temporary pause in planned US tariffs on Canada, a continued hard US stance toward Iran and related strength in oil prices. Central bank, regulatory and currency developments also remained prominent, with the RBA stressing inflation risks, the SEC proposing a crypto fundraising framework and attention staying on UK inflation data and the yen after the late-July intervention.