TMGM Daily Market Breakfast: 2026-08-11

Morning Snapshot

• Iran ruled out negotiations with the United States during President Donald Trump's term, undermining efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and keeping global oil supply concerns elevated.
• Oil prices extended sharp gains during the reporting window as uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz reopening persisted and regional security risks remained in focus.
• Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said current US policy is not meaningfully restricting the economy and called for some further rate hikes.
• A Jiji Press report said the Bank of Japan may consider another interest rate increase at its September 17-18 meeting to address upside inflation risks.
• The Japanese Yen traded in a narrow range during Japan's Mountain Day holiday as markets weighed possible official intervention and shifting Bank of Japan policy expectations.
• US Treasury yields rose on Monday as markets prepared for US inflation data later this week amid renewed concern about energy-driven price pressures.
• An article ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy meeting said the central bank was set to keep its cash rate unchanged at 4.35%.

Overview

Middle East developments dominated the reporting window, with Iran's refusal to negotiate with the United States during President Donald Trump's term casting doubt on any near-term reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. That stance, together with Iran's previously stated conditions for reopening the waterway and reports of additional regional security threats, kept energy supply risks at the centre of market coverage and coincided with a strong rise in oil prices.

Central bank and rates news also remained prominent. In the United States, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack argued that policy was not sufficiently restrictive and said further rate increases were needed, while US Treasury yields moved higher ahead of upcoming inflation data. In Japan, Jiji Press reported that the Bank of Japan may consider a September rate increase, and separate coverage highlighted thin holiday trading in the yen alongside speculation about possible intervention. In Australia, reporting ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's meeting pointed to an unchanged 4.35% policy rate.

Geopolitical Developments

Iran rejects negotiations with the United States during Trump's term

Iran ruled out any future negotiations with the United States while President Donald Trump remains in office, according to Iranian outlets and a post attributed to an adviser to Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. The report said Tehran would wait until the US president's term ends on January 20, 2029, before resuming talks. The development was described as a setback to efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and reduce Middle East tensions.

Energy & Commodities

Oil prices rally as Strait of Hormuz uncertainty persists

Oil prices rose sharply across multiple reports during the reporting window as uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz reopening continued. One report said WTI rose more than 3% on Monday to around $78.80, another said it jumped more than 6% to around $81.15, and later coverage said the US benchmark reached $83.50 during European trading on Tuesday. The articles linked the move to persistent concerns over global oil supply, fading hopes of a quick reopening of the waterway, and the continued geopolitical risk premium attached to Middle East tensions.

Iran sets conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz as regional attacks add to supply concerns

Iran reiterated conditions for fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz, including an end to the US naval blockade, the withdrawal of US naval and air forces from around Iran, compensation for damage from recent conflicts, the lifting of sanctions and the unconditional release of frozen Iranian assets, according to one report citing Al Jazeera and comments attributed to Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. The same article said talks with Oman on a safe shipping route appeared to be progressing but no agreement on a full reopening had been reached. It also reported that Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis claimed responsibility for a drone attack on a Saudi Aramco refinery in Jazan, adding to concerns about regional energy infrastructure security.

Macroeconomics & Central Banks

Fed's Hammack says US policy is not restrictive enough

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Monday that the current US interest-rate setting is not meaningfully restricting the economy and that some number of additional rate hikes is needed. The remarks were described as hawkish and added to the reporting window's focus on US policy and inflation risks.

US Treasury yields rise ahead of inflation data

US Treasury yields rose on Monday as markets prepared for the release of US inflation figures later in the week. The article said the move came after a worse-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday and amid renewed concern that higher oil prices could add to inflation pressure.

Jiji Press says the Bank of Japan may consider a September rate increase

Jiji Press reported that the Bank of Japan may consider an additional interest-rate increase at its September 17-18 policy meeting after leaving rates unchanged in July. The report said the move would be aimed at countering upside inflation risks, with separate coverage citing pressure from artificial intelligence-related demand, yen depreciation and elevated global crude oil prices. Another article in the reporting window also noted market pricing for a possible September move and said the July Summary of Opinions showed a tilt toward further tightening.

Yen trading stays subdued during Japanese holiday as intervention speculation persists

The Japanese Yen held in a tight range during Mountain Day holiday trading, with USD/JPY around 159.30 in thin market conditions after nearly 1% gains in the previous day. The article said the yen had retraced about half of the gains from its recent intervention-driven rally and that reduced liquidity could provide a strategic window for any further official action, while markets also weighed changing Bank of Japan policy expectations.

RBA seen holding the cash rate at 4.35%

Reporting ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy meeting said the central bank was on track to leave the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 4.35% for a second consecutive meeting. The article said softer inflation had reduced expectations of a further increase.

Scheduled Events

• Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting — 2026-09-17 to 2026-09-18: Jiji Press said the Bank of Japan may consider an additional interest-rate increase at its September 17-18 meeting.

Closing Summary

The reporting window was led by Middle East developments affecting the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices, alongside central bank and rates coverage from the United States, Japan and Australia. Iran's stance on negotiations, the rise in oil prices, Fed commentary, US yield moves and renewed focus on possible Bank of Japan tightening were the main factual themes.