• Trump’s Iran optimism weighs on Dollar and crude prices.
• UK inflation cools, easing immediate Bank of England pressure.
• Fed minutes loom as traders price possible December hike.

The GBP/USD posts gains of over 0.30% during the North American session as the Greenback turns negative for the day amid optimism about US-Iran talks that could end the conflict, which has lasted nearly 11 weeks. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.3449, after bouncing off daily lows of 1.3375.

GBP/USD climbs as softer UK inflation eases BoE pressure

Market mood turned positive on US President Trump’s comments that the US is in the final stages of talks with Iran, which weighed on the US Dollar and Oil prices. Nevertheless, mixed headlines around the conflict are looming as Iran’s Foreign Minister Spokesman said that neither the US nor Israel should be allowed to pass through Hormuz, via Al Jazeera.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s performance against six major currencies, is down 0.21% at 99.09. WTI is also posting losses, plunging more than 4%, with the barrel below the $100.00 milestone.

Ahead, traders will eye the Federal Reserve’s last meeting minutes, searching for clues regarding the future path of rates. Still, last week’s inflation prints ignited a repricing of the Fed’s monetary policy, with traders discounting a 50% chance of a rate hike by December, according to Prime Terminal data.

Across the pond, British inflation dipped from 3.3% to 2.8% YoY, below estimates of 3%, a relief for the Bank of England (BoE), which has been pressured amid a looming stagflationary scenario.

Several BoE officials crossed the wires, led by Governor Bailey, who commented that financial market tightening gives the central bank time to assess whether to raise rates as “we have a softening picture for growth and the labour market.”

MPC member Mann said she is worried about high inflation late in 2026, while Swati Dhingra said there is sufficient restrictiveness to avoid tightening policy. Echoing some of Dhingra’s comments was Sarah Breeden, who said that she had seen tightening in financial conditions.

Ahead this week, the UK docket will feature S&P Global Flash PMIs, which will update business sentiment towards present and future economic conditions.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3450. The pair holds a slight bullish bias as spot hovers around the confluence of the reclaimed upward support trend line from 1.3159 and the downward resistance line off 1.3864, turning this area into a pivotal zone. Price trades above the simple moving average composite around 1.3430, suggesting underlying support, while the Relative Strength Index (14) near 48 hints at neutral-to-firming momentum rather than overstretched conditions.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the trend-line pivot area around 1.3450, with the simple moving average cluster near 1.3430 offering additional backing if a pullback develops. As long as the pair defends this band, buyers could retain control, keeping the focus on a potential continuation of the nascent rebound, while a sustained break back below the moving average support would undermine the constructive short-term structure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)