Commerzbank’s Dr. Vincent Stamer analyses how new US tariffs under President Trump affect exporters from Europe. Following a Supreme Court ruling against earlier measures, a new 15% global tariff for 150 days has been announced. The report focuses on the Turnberry Agreement and the heightened uncertainty for European Union exporters.

US tariff reset and Turnberry risks

"Last Friday, the US Supreme Court ruled that most of Trump's tariffs were unconstitutional. As a result, US President Trump imposed a new global tariff of 15% for 150 days on a different legal basis. If the US government now fails to comply with the existing trade agreements between the EU and the US, tariffs on some goods, such as cars, could rise."

"A key but unresolved question for European Union exporters is whether the “Turnberry Deal” between the US and the EU from the summer of 2025 will be honored. We consider this to be the more likely scenario for the coming months. In this case, little would change for many EU exporters."

"If the agreement is terminated, higher tariffs would apply on many goods than is currently the case. This will most likely also apply after the 150 days. This is because the Trump administration will use other laws to push through its tariff agenda."

"We also assume that the US government will use other laws for the period after the 150 days to keep the average tariff at around 15%, for example through sector-specific tariffs. As long as the average tariff remains at this level, Europe has no incentive to terminate the agreement. This is because the 15% tariff cap provides at least some certainty."

"Nevertheless, the likelihood of one of the two parties terminating the agreement has increased. In any case, uncertainty about future tariffs has risen once again."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)