EUR/USD remains offered below 1.1600, seems vulnerable near multi-month low

ARTICOLI POPOLARI

The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the 1.1530 region, or the lowest level since November 2025, and lower for the third consecutive day on Wednesday. Spot prices slide back below the 1.1600 mark during the Asian session and seem vulnerable to slide further.

EUR/USD attracts sellers for the third straight day amid a combination of negative factors.
Rising geopolitical tensions continue to benefit the USD’s status as the reserve currency.
Concerns about the energy crisis weigh on the Euro and further contribute to the decline.

A broader conflict in the Middle East showed few signs of ceasing, fueling concerns over the inflationary effects of a prolonged war. This comes on top of reduced bets for more aggressive policy easing by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and benefits the safe-haven US Dollar (USD). The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, retains its bullish bias and remains within striking distance of a three-month high, set on Tuesday, which, in turn, is seen exerting pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

Meanwhile, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz raises worries about supply disruption from the key oil-producing region. Given Europe’s reliance on imported energy, a further rise in Crude and Natural Gas prices could act as a major economic shock. This turns out to be another factor that weighs on the shared currency and validates the near-term negative outlook for the EUR/USD pair. Traders now look forward to the release of the final Eurozone Services PMIs for short-term opportunities ahead of the US macro data.

Wednesday's US economic docket features the ADP report on private-sector employment and ISM Services PMI. The market focus, however, will remain glued to geopolitical developments, which will continue to play a key role in influencing the USD demand. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD pair is to the downside and backs the case for a further near-term depreciating move.

US Dollar Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		1.62%	0.83%	1.07%	0.36%	0.82%	1.52%	2.01%
EUR	-1.62%		-0.78%	-0.55%	-1.24%	-0.79%	-0.10%	0.38%
GBP	-0.83%	0.78%		0.04%	-0.46%	-0.01%	0.68%	1.17%
JPY	-1.07%	0.55%	-0.04%		-0.65%	-0.20%	0.55%	0.96%
CAD	-0.36%	1.24%	0.46%	0.65%		0.42%	1.21%	1.65%
AUD	-0.82%	0.79%	0.01%	0.20%	-0.42%		0.69%	1.18%
NZD	-1.52%	0.10%	-0.68%	-0.55%	-1.21%	-0.69%		0.49%
CHF	-2.01%	-0.38%	-1.17%	-0.96%	-1.65%	-1.18%	-0.49%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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