ING economists Peter Virovacz and Zoltán Homolya note that Hungarian inflation in March 2026 surprised on the downside versus expectations but remained above February’s decade low. They highlight favourable core and services dynamics, yet stress that higher energy prices and Hungarian Forint (HUF) volatility keep risks elevated. ING projects Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising toward 4.5% by year-end, modestly above the National Bank of Hungary’s (MNB) 3% target.

Inflation shock contained but risks linger

"Hungarian inflation in March was lower than expected, but still higher than the extremely low figure recorded in the previous month."

"Inflation in March 2026 increased slightly from the decade-low level reached in February, according to the latest data released by the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (HCSO). This is clearly a positive surprise, meaning that inflation rose by less than expected as a result of the war in the Middle East."

"The core inflation rate – adjusted for volatile items (including changes in fuel prices) – has shown a more favourable picture. In fact, it declined compared to the previous month to moderate to 1.9% on a year-on-year basis."

"According to our latest flash estimate, the year-on-year inflation rate could rise to around 3.0-3.5% by the end of the first half of the year and reach around 4.5% by the end of the year. Inflation has essentially begun to rise from a 10-year low, and for now, the pace of acceleration remains moderate."

"We therefore estimate that 2026 average inflation might ultimately settle in the vicinity of – but somewhat above – the central bank’s 3% inflation target."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)