UOB’s Global Economics & Markets Research, led by Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Vincentius Ming Shen, notes that Indonesia’s trade surplus widened slightly in February 2026 to USD1.27bn, extending 70 months of gains. The report highlights strong value-added exports and rising capital goods imports, but stresses that the overall trade surplus is likely to narrow as geopolitical tensions and supply chain risks weigh on Indonesia’s external position.

Surplus resilience faces narrowing prospects

"Going forward, trade surplus may narrow despite more downstreaming efforts and shifts towards higher-value exports amid risks from global supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions."

"The downstreaming strategy has delivered tangible results, particularly in nickel, and should be extended to other commodities such as iron & steel, coal, and refined fuels."

"The Balikpapan refinery provides an additional strategic revenue stream for exports in the aftermath of the current Middle East tension."

"Regional and global trade partnerships, including ASEAN cooperation and reciprocal tariff arrangements, will be critical to sustaining momentum."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)