Danske Research Team notes that Riksbank Minutes show a divided board on handling supply shocks, with Seim and Thedéen favouring frontloaded rate hikes, while Jansson, Bunge and Hjelm prefer a gradual, wait-and-see stance. Hjelm argues for looking through supply shocks and warns, like Jansson, against overreacting. Danske Bank concludes the Riksbank stands ready to act in May if conflict-related disruptions persist, as money markets trimmed 5–6 basis points from the 2026 curve.

Riksbank split on policy response

"In Sweden, the Riksbank Minutes revealed a board slightly divided on how to deal with supply shocks."

"Seim and Thedéen are open to frontloaded rate hikes, whereas Jansson, Bunge, and the newest member, Hjelm promote a gradual, wait-and-see approach."

"Hjelm prefers to see through the supply shocks, even in an adverse scenario. Like Jansson, Hjelm warns against overreacting, emphasising the risks of a policy U-turn."

"Our conclusion is that the Riksbank will show high readiness to act in May if the conflict persists and continues to impact intermediate goods."

"The money market shaved off 5-6 basis points from the 2026 curve."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)