US Dollar Index (DXY) consolidates around mid-98.00s as bulls await 200-day SMA breakout

ARTICOLI POPOLARI

DXY consolidates its gains registered over the past two days amid rising US-Iran tensions.
Inflation fears fuel hawkish Fed bets and back the case for a further move up for the USD.
Traders now look to the US macro data and Fed speak for some impetus later this Tuesday.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, holds steady around mid-98.00s during the Asian session on Tuesday, consolidating its gains registered over the past two days. Meanwhile, rising US-Iran tensions back the case for further appreciation, with bulls awaiting a sustained move beyond a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) before placing fresh bets.

The fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran is on the brink of collapse after a severe flare-up of violence in the Persian Gulf on Monday. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and South Korea reported strikes on ships in the vital channel. The UAE also said a fire broke out at the oil port of Fujairah following Iranian missile and drone attacks. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump warned that Iran would be blown off the face of the earth if it attacks American vessels escorting ships through the Gulf under a new initiative called "Project Freedom".

This keeps geopolitical risks in play and continues to underpin the US Dollar's (USD) reserve currency status. Furthermore, the US-Iran standoff remains supportive of elevated Crude Oil prices, fueling inflationary concerns and bets for more hawkish central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed). According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a Fed rate hike by the end of this year currently stand at roughly around 35% compared to less than 10% last Friday. This further validates the positive outlook for the DXY.

Traders now look forward to the US economic docket – featuring the release of ISM Services PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, and New Home Sales data. Apart from this, speeches from influential FOMC members and further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis should provide some impetus to the DXY. This week's key focus, however, will be on the key US monthly employment details – popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

US Dollar Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.54%	0.54%	0.36%	0.25%	0.80%	0.55%	0.49%
EUR	-0.54%		-0.01%	-0.22%	-0.29%	0.30%	0.00%	-0.02%
GBP	-0.54%	0.00%		-0.19%	-0.28%	0.32%	0.02%	-0.02%
JPY	-0.36%	0.22%	0.19%		-0.05%	0.49%	0.26%	0.11%
CAD	-0.25%	0.29%	0.28%	0.05%		0.57%	0.32%	0.26%
AUD	-0.80%	-0.30%	-0.32%	-0.49%	-0.57%		-0.30%	-0.32%
NZD	-0.55%	-0.00%	-0.02%	-0.26%	-0.32%	0.30%		-0.04%
CHF	-0.49%	0.02%	0.02%	-0.11%	-0.26%	0.32%	0.04%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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