[TMGM Financial Breakfast] Sudden Reversal: Trump Delays Iran Strike, Oil Plunges While Gold Surges Over $100
Ahead of the U.S. session on Monday, Trump announced that the United States and Iran had engaged in “productive discussions” over the past two days and that he would delay any planned attacks on Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure. Following this statement, global markets rapidly reversed direction.
Trump described the talks with Iranian officials as intense and said he still hopes to achieve meaningful progress. After his remarks, spot gold surged by more than $100 in the short term, reclaiming the $4,400 level. Both WTI and Brent crude oil prices plunged by more than 10% at one point. The U.S. dollar index fell by around 100 points intraday, while U.S. and European equity markets turned higher.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry responded by suggesting that Trump’s remarks were aimed at lowering energy prices and buying time for military planning. Iranian state television claimed that under Iran’s firm deterrence, the U.S. president had backed down from plans to strike energy infrastructure.
Sources indicated that there had been no direct or intermediary communication between Iran and the United States. After learning that Iran was prepared to target all power facilities across West Asia, Trump reportedly chose to step back. A senior Iranian security official stated that the Strait of Hormuz would not return to pre-conflict conditions through “psychological warfare.” Previously, the International Energy Agency had warned that more than 40 energy assets in the Middle East have been damaged since the conflict began.
While some form of indirect contact between the two sides cannot be ruled out, it is important to interpret developments within the proper context. Trump is known for exaggerating statements, and as always, there are multiple sides to the situation — making it one that requires careful assessment.
From a deeper perspective, every $5 decline in oil prices could reduce global inflation expectations by approximately 0.2–0.4 percentage points. This directly translates into a more favorable discount rate environment for gold pricing. Markets are now repricing this transmission mechanism, providing continued support for spot gold.
Market Interpretation:
On the four-hour chart, gold is showing a rebound from oversold conditions, with MACD lines and volume bars contracting below the zero axis. Following Trump’s decision to delay military action, risk sentiment improved rapidly, and concerns over disruptions to Middle East energy supply temporarily eased. Previously, high oil prices had forced central banks to maintain tight monetary policies, weighing on gold valuations. Now, signs of easing tensions are opening the door for potential policy shifts.
