IDF remains in state of war with Lebanon
According to a report from the Guardian, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff, Eyal Zamir, said that forces are continuing their combat operations in southern Lebanon and are ânot in a ceasefireâ with Hezbollah.
IDF chief Zamir added, âWe can return to fighting Iran at any moment, and in a very powerful manner,â while we are currently in a ceasefire situation with the nation.
Market reaction
There seems to be no immediate impact of the IDF chief Zamir's comments on the market sentiment. As of writing, S&P 500 futures trade flat around 6,825.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms ârisk-onâ and ârisk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a ârisk-onâ market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a ârisk-offâ market investors start to âplay it safeâ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of ârisk-onâ, stock markets will rise, most commodities â except Gold â will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a ârisk-offâ market, Bonds go up â especially major government Bonds â Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are ârisk-onâ. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of ârisk-offâ are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the worldâs reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them â even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
