On Tuesday, spot gold declined by more than 2% intraday, briefly falling below $5,110. Over the previous four trading days, gold had surged more than 7%, supported by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that disrupted President Trump’s tariff framework and heightened confrontation between the United States and Iran, prompting investors to flock to safe-haven assets.

Trump said that following the Supreme Court’s ruling against his so-called reciprocal tariffs, he would raise global import duties to 15%. Markets are currently in a state of confusion. An earlier directive authorizing a 10% import tariff took effect on Tuesday, while the timeline for higher rates has yet to be finalized.

Some U.S. trading partners are attempting to reconcile the latest tariff measures with earlier agreements, adding strain to already tense relationships. An assessment by the European Union found that Trump’s new policies could push tariffs on certain exports above levels permitted under existing trade agreements.

Tariff-related developments have kept uncertainty elevated, providing marginal support for gold. However, the news has not yet been sufficient to trigger a decisive breakout. With real yields remaining relatively firm and the U.S. dollar stable, gold may enter a consolidation phase rather than resume a sharp rally in the near term.

After experiencing a historic plunge earlier in the month, gold has stabilized above the $5,000 per ounce level as investors continue to seek safe-haven protection.

Several banks, including BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, and Goldman Sachs, expect gold prices to rebound, arguing that the underlying drivers of the previous rally remain intact. These include concerns about Federal Reserve independence and persistent geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East.

UBS projects that gold could reach $6,200 per ounce in the coming months, citing the continued presence of key drivers that fueled its strong rebound over the past year.

Market Interpretation:

On the four-hour chart, gold has pulled back and rebounded, with MACD lines and the histogram converging near the zero axis. The United States has deployed its largest military presence in the Middle East since 2003, and negotiations regarding Iran’s nuclear program are set to resume this week. While Trump has expressed a preference for a diplomatic solution, he has also warned that failure to reach an agreement would have severe consequences for Iran.