Ahead of July 7, optimism surrounding SpaceX's addition to the Nasdaq-100 had already driven the stock up nearly 6%. JPMorgan estimated that the index inclusion would trigger approximately US$4.3 billion in passive fund inflows. Meanwhile, six Wall Street brokerages initiated coverage with Buy ratings, assigning price targets ranging from US$205 to US$300.

Despite these bullish catalysts, the stock came under sustained selling pressure throughout the trading session, ultimately closing down 6.83%. The closing price of US$149.47 was not only below its first-day opening price of US$150, but also well below its previous peak above US$200. Although it remains above its IPO price of US$135, the fact that the stock fell below its listing-day opening price on its first day in the Nasdaq-100 highlights a clear divergence between investor sentiment and the mechanical buying generated by index inclusion.

What Went Wrong?

The primary factor weighing on market sentiment was a legal challenge involving Colossus 2, SpaceX's AI data center project.

A lawsuit is seeking a court order requiring SpaceX to shut down the natural gas turbines powering the Colossus 2 data center, alleging that the turbines have been operating without the necessary permits. Colossus 2 is a key component of SpaceX's strategy to expand its AI computing infrastructure and serves as an important computing platform supporting its partnership with Anthropic.

According to SpaceX's IPO prospectus, Anthropic has agreed to pay nearly US$45 billion over the next three years for computing capacity. The agreement runs through May 2029, with Anthropic expected to pay approximately US$1.25 billion per month, equivalent to roughly US$15 billion in annual revenue. Either party may terminate the agreement with 90 days' notice.

Industry observers believe the lower court could require SpaceX to suspend operation of the gas turbines while permits are obtained, although it may instead grant the company time to address compliance issues. As a result, the incident is currently viewed more as an operational and regulatory risk than a fundamental threat to SpaceX's long-term AI infrastructure strategy. Nevertheless, the market's reaction on July 7 was to sell first and assess the situation later.

More broadly, the Colossus 2 dispute highlights a challenge facing the entire AI infrastructure industry rather than a single company. Even firms with significant financial resources and technological advantages must overcome power supply constraints and increasingly complex regulatory approvals. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta are all competing globally for electricity and data center capacity. Securing reliable, low-cost, large-scale energy has become one of the most critical competitive advantages in the AI race.

What Should Investors Watch Next?

SpaceX's next major catalyst will be its first earnings report as a public company, expected in late July or early August. Investors will closely examine the company's financial performance, while the expiration of the IPO lock-up period will also come into focus.

Although Elon Musk is prohibited from selling his shares until June 2027, lock-up restrictions on other early investors and employee shareholders are expected to begin expiring following the company's first earnings release, potentially increasing selling pressure.

Meanwhile, developments in the Colossus 2 lawsuit will remain the most important variable over the coming weeks. If the court allows SpaceX time to rectify compliance issues instead of ordering an immediate shutdown, the risk to the US$45 billion Anthropic contract would be substantially reduced. However, if the court orders an immediate suspension of operations, SpaceX's AI infrastructure growth narrative could face a much more significant challenge.