S&P Global Ratings has revised its outlook on Uber from “stable” to “positive” while affirming its current rating. Uber’s leading platform and established operating framework are key drivers supporting healthy organic growth in total gross bookings.
In the third quarter of 2025, the number of Uber trips rose 22% year-on-year, supported by a 17% increase in monthly active platform users to 189 million, as well as higher average trip frequency. Uber’s total gross bookings in 2025 are expected to exceed USD 190 billion, in line with the company’s fourth-quarter guidance for 17%–21% year-on-year growth at constant currency.
Although the ride-hailing business is relatively mature and subject to competition, S&P emphasizes the growth opportunities arising from cross-platform usage and the expansion of grocery and retail delivery. Spending by cross-platform consumers, including Uber One subscribers, is roughly three times that of single-product users.
The rating agency forecasts that Uber’s adjusted free operating cash flow will increase to around USD 5.9 billion in 2025 and reach USD 7.2 billion in 2026. These figures already reflect adjustments for roughly USD 2.7 billion of changes in restricted cash and investments.
Uber is maintaining a long-term leverage target of 2x, but EBITDA growth is expected to help bring its leverage ratio down to well below 1.5x over the next 12–18 months. The company has committed to returning around 50% of its annual free operating cash flow to shareholders through share repurchases.
While autonomous driving technology represents a potential long-term risk, S&P does not believe it will materially affect Uber’s credit profile over the next few years. The agency notes that Uber has already formed strategic partnerships with companies including Waymo, Lucid and Nvidia to position itself for the evolving autonomous vehicle space.
Market Commentary:
If Uber can maintain annual total gross bookings growth above 15%, deliver adjusted free operating cash flow of more than USD 7 billion, and keep its adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 1.5x, S&P may further upgrade Uber’s rating within the next 12 months.
